PP&A Case Study
Mapping the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market for a Korean Industrial Group
How a Korean industrial and trading group sized SAF demand, technologies and economics through 2050
Client Situation

A Korean industrial and trading group with interests across energy, materials and agricultural commodities was weighing whether and how to participate in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Airlines face blending mandates in Europe and targets in the United States, Asia and at industry bodies, yet SAF supplied only about one percent of jet fuel in 2024 and every published forecast pointed to a production shortfall. Before committing capital, the group needed an outside view of the market it would be entering: how large SAF demand could become by 2030, 2040 and 2050, which conversion technologies would win, who was building capacity and where, how the value chain and contracting worked, what the fuel cost against conventional jet fuel, and what it would take to certify a new pathway.

Our Approach

PP&A structured the study around three research areas: the market's status, technology mix and forecast; the producers and project pipeline; and the core technologies by company and process. A second chapter covered business structure by value-chain stream, a cost comparison model and the certification process. The team combined secondary desk research on public project announcements, company disclosures and regulatory targets with in-depth interviews with three senior experts drawn from a global energy major, a SAF producer with aircraft-manufacturer supply chain experience, and a published authority on sustainable aviation fuel.

PP&A ran the work between October and November 2024, delivered an interim report, and closed with a final report that included a global plant-by-plant list of completed, in-progress and announced facilities with capacity, investment and technology pathway, a set of written expert answers to follow-up questions, and interview notes organized by research section.

Client Results

The final report gave the group a grounded view of the market it was weighing. It set out expert expectations for jet fuel and SAF demand to 2050 and the mandates and incentives behind them in each major region. It assessed how far each conversion pathway could scale against its feedstock limits, and it listed every tracked plant worldwide by status, capacity, investment and technology. The business chapter explained how the value chain and contracting work, compared the cost of SAF with conventional jet fuel, and walked through the certification route a new pathway must follow.

In general terms, the experts expected demand to outrun supply for years to come. With the plant list and the experts' written answers to follow-up questions, the group gained a clear picture of where a new entrant could add value and where the risks lay.

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